Chris Godwin Research Process DRAFT

Introduction: This article will explore the concepts of oil in the modern world's economy, and it's impact. The theory of "Peak Oil" will be explored, and if it is a true concept or simply a theory. If Peak Oil is a true theory, have we passed the "peak"? If so, what will be the impact be as time goes on to the global economy. This project aims to explore these issues, and hopefully have a unified ideal that explains and clarifies what may happen.

Topic Analysis:

Academic Disciplines: Geology & Economy.
Library of Congress Subject Headings: I did not use any in my research process.
Library of Congress Numbers:
QE420-499 – Petrology
HD9502-9502.5 - Energy Industries
HB801-842 - Consumption. Demand
HB1-3840 - Economic Theory

Keywords Used:
Peak Oil
Oil Theory
World Economy
Oil Crisis
Hubbert Peak
Petroleum

Most Important Database: I had prior experience with it, so I used Academic Search Premier to find the journal entries I identified. To me, it is absolutely vital to the research process. I find it excessively easy to use, and I find it very accessible. I'm able to find articles that nail my topic within minutes using it.

Research Process:

The hardest part of researching, is trying to figure out what to do to get the results you need. For me, I'm a last second type of writer. The stronger the pressure of failure, the harder I can work. It is usually not until the last few minutes of a project that I am able to get things to work for me the way I want. This has been the case with this class. Early on in this project, I had no idea where I was going. The longer this class has gone on, the more I have refined and directed my research to the point needed. Only after all this time do I have any firm idea of what my topic *is* in regards to this.

My strategy for finding information was scatterbrained, much like the person I am. The easiest point I had in the class for finding information was when I used Academic Search Premier. Due to past experience, I was able to quickly find the articles that I ended up using. For everything else, it was just trial and error, and when it came to websites, I failed so miserably the first time that I had to re-search...I found a Blog site that dealt with Peak Oil Theory, and had direct links to articles. It was through that that I found the two website pages that I ended up using. I got lucky instead of using skill there. For me, anything that is strictly online such as websites are unreliable. I tend to not use them, so my ability to find good ones has went down as a result.

My topic itself is hard to deal with. I let interest in the topic cloud over my judgment. For one, not everyone agrees with the theory of Peak Oil, but that in itself has proved to be a boon since I have used different viewpoints to get results. How do you isolate an issue as massive as Oil and it's ramifications on the world economy? No easy feat. The information I found was varied, but most of it agreed that Peak Oil is a reality...however, it was different dramatically in time or if we'd even reach it. You can't prove peak theory outside of theory, until it's too late. That was the basis of the rift in the topic. The sheer size of the topic made it hard to isolate sources because almost everything is talking about the topic in some form. Now more then ever gasoline (and by proxy oil) has become suck a hot topic that it's springing up everywhere. It was hard to pick the correct resource for the topic due to this. What I've found more or less confirms what I had already known about the topic, that Peak Oil is considered by most (can't say everyone) to be real...but that while it is a "finite" resource, that human ingenuity could make it so that we never run out...but the possibility is strong that Oil will become so high priced that it will become impossible to price effectively in the market.

Chris Godwin's Source DRAFT

Reference/Subject

• PETROLEUM., The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition. 2008.

Annotation: This is a good source of basic information on Petroleum, which makes up the basic understanding of the project. When oil production began, what is petroleum, and other basic information that could be vital to the foundation of the project.

• Robert L. Bradley Jr. "America Can Safely Rely on Growing Oil Reserves." Opposing Viewpoints: America in the Twenty-First Century. Ed. Andrea C. Nakaya. Detroit: Greenhaven Press, 2006. Opposing Viewpoints Resource Center. Gale. the Libraries @ Seattle Comm Coll. 20 May. 2008 <http://find.galegroup.com.ez.sccd.ctc.edu:2048/ovrc/infomark.do?&contentSet=GSRC&type=retrieve&tabID=T010&prodId=OVRC&docId=EJ3010444207&source=gale&srcprod=OVRC&userGroupName=seat92874&version=1.0>.

Annotation: This is an interesting article regarding peak oil. The author describes in an overview of Peak Oil, the original author's viewpoints on how Peak Oil does not exist within reality. The concept is true, but that human development will continually push the "peak" further and further back. The original author (as I understood it in the work) Robert L. Bradley Jr. is the President of the Institute for Eneergy Research.

Books

• Maugeri, Leonardo. The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource. Westport, Conn: Praeger Publishers. 2006.

Annotation: This is one of the two books selected. The "Age of Oil" covered the geopolitical situations in which Oil has developed, while asserting the view point that Oil is not running out. Despite Oil being a finite resource, the author insists that any concept of predicting peak's in the reserves is futile, and like the pposing article, asserts that human development will continually press back any peak. Leonardo Maugeri is a Senior Vice President for the Corporate Strategies and Planning for Italian Energy company called ENI.

• Goodstein, David. Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil. New York: W.W. Norton. 2004.

Annotation: As the second book selected, this one paints a much darker picture then "Age of Oil". In "Out of Gas", David Goodstein predicts using information he has gathered that we have surpassed the Hubbert Peak, and that we will very soon run out oil, or the demand for oil as it gets harder to produce will price it entirely out of the realm of the market. He claims that Alternative Fuel sources could be used, but seemingly does not hold them in high estimation. David Goodstein works as a professor at the California Institute of Technology for Physics and applied physics.

Websites

• Backer, Terry. "Peak Oil: Everything is going to change". May 16th, 2008. Connecticut Post. [http://www.connpost.com/ci_9286142?source=most_viewed]

Annotation: This article was posted in the Connecticut Post by State Representative Terry Backer regarding the "reality" of the oil situation, and the passing of legislation in Connecticut to address the growing situation. Backer spares no words in claiming that most elected officials are trying to avoid the issue at all costs to earn re-election. Along with being a State Representative and co-founder of the "Connecticut Peak Oil and Natural Gas Caucus", Backer is a member of the General Assembly's "Energy and Technologies Committee".

• Hoyos Carola. "Running on empty? Fears over oil supply move into themainstream". May 19th, 2008. Financial Times. [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c9d05aa-25ca-11dd-b510-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1]

Annotation: This article does not present a viewpoint specifically of it's own, instead lists several different viewpoints and ideas of what the current oil situation. Rising prices, in some places lower production, and the reality that 40% of all oil comes from oil reserves discovered over 30 years ago. The end result of the situation, the article gives no firm resolution to the issue, only that the end result could be what experts predict or less.

Periodicals

• Li Minqi. "Peak Oil, The Rise of China and India, and The Global Energy Crisis". Journal of Contemporary Asia. 37.4 (2007): 449-471. Academic Search Primier. EBSCO. Seattle Central Community College. May 9th, 2008. [http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=27424150&site=ehost-live]

Annotation: This article Iis packed full of information, graphs, and projections based on the current economical trends in the world's market for oil and other fossil fuels. The article explains that as countries such as China and India have improved their economies, they've moved onto the industrial trail that nations such as England and the United States paved. With their rise, the demand for Oil has unilaterally grown. The article also breaks down the energy consumption of major countries, and is just filled to the brim of information. Minqi Li, is an assistant professor at the University of Utah in the Economics department with a PH.D from the University of Massachusetts Amherst in 2002. His main topics are Political Economy, Marxism, World Systems and Chinese Economy.

• Shultz, George P. & Woolsey, R. James. "The Petroleum Bomb". Mechanical Engineering. 127.10 (2005): 30-34. Acamdemic Search Primier. EBSCO. Seattle Central Community College. May 9th, 2008. [http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=18487051&site=ehost-live]

Annotation: This article deals with the possibility of a terrorist attack on Oil infrastructure of the Middle East could have massive repercussions on the world economy. The article highlights what would happen to the world economy if something happened to the reserves, which raises many questions upon the world economy as it relates to Oil and it's focus in the world...Both authors are highly knowlegable on Economy and energy having both worked in the federal government at some point with Shultz serving as the Secretary of State, and Woolsey upon leaving working for the government then went on to join Booz Alien Hamilton Inc. as a Vice President and top consultant.

• Nazarbayev, Nursultan. "KAZAKHSTAN: Economic Force on the Global Frontier". Foreign Affairs. 86.1 (2007): 114-114. Academic Search Primier. EBSCO. Seattle Central Community College. May 9th, 2008. [http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=23525226&site=ehost-live]

Annotation: This article produced by the President of Kazakhstan highlights that Kazakhstan has entered the global economy with force, based almost entirely upon their exportation of oil and natural gas. Their entire economy has been built off this boon to their country. Viewed objectively, there is little more then a celebration here, but it raises questions as it pertains to their economy if they run dry.

Non-Print

• 1. "Looking Beyond Oil for Energy". Aleklett, Kjell & Klare, Michael & Felmy, John. Weekday. Puget Sounds Public Radio. 12th May, 2005.
  [http://128.208.34.90/ramgen/realarch/WeekdayA/WeekDayA20050512.rm]

Annotation: This radio program was created three years ago, talking about peak oil. The program includes three guests all with strong knowlege of the issue. They include Kjell Aleklett, professor of physics in Swedan, and President of the Study of Peak Oil and Natural Gas. Michael Klare, author of a book on peak oil, and a professor in Massachusetts, and John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute. Every guest is given ample time to peak on their thoughts, and all agree that peak oil exist, they just disagree on several key issues related to it.

Statistic

• 1. "Total Petroleum Consumption All Countries, Total OECD and World Total, Most Recent Annual Estimates 1980-2007." Energy Information Administration. 12th April, 2008. [http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/RecentPetroleumConsumptionBarrelsperDay.xls]

Annotation: This single excel file tracks the world wide use of oil and petroleum products from 1980 to 2005. 2006 and 2007 are also listed, but they seem more tentative, even then this was updated last in April of this year. World wide gross use of petroleum has gone up just about every single year tracked, which is an amazing asset. It proves that every year there is more demand, which fuels the need for more of it, while comes from the Energy Information Administration giving it credence.

Week 7 Blog Entry

Websites are not my strong suit in researching. In fact, when I'm preparing a paper I almost always ignore them unless it's general information I can find easily. The only time in recent memory I can remember using websites for a paper or project was for a paper I did on Native Americans.

As such, I did not fair as well on the website part of this as I did the periodicals. Those are my strong suit. I didn't find good enough information on the searches I did that couldn't stand up when I viewed them critically. Most of them came from completely unreliable sources (such as my "Peak Oil is a Myth" one which was...cookey) but some of them had information that I could back up easily enough that could be used...but not much.

If Websites are required, I will probably have to do some research outside of assignment to cover that aspect of it. Otherwise it won't be pretty.

Oh, and the highlight of the week? Me botching my name when I typed in the subject line in one of the assignments. That...was a low point.

Week 6 Blog Entry

This week is the first week that I've really felt like this topic is coming together. I don't feel ashamed to admit that for most of this class, I've felt like a headless chicken, and didn't really know or didn't want to know how to proceed...However, getting some hard research, and a stronger understanding of what my topic should be is helping immensely.

No matter how I tackle this idea, my topic is still broad...but I think that I've finally got it into a manageable portion for my topic. I don't think where it is right now isn't something I can't handle.

Amazingly, the hardest part of the week for me wasn't the research, or revising things...It was trying to figure out information on Proquest and Academic Search Premier. Some of the info we had to gather I could not find, and just did my best to try and work it.

For me...Writing isn't hard. Researching isn't really that hard either. I hate *doing* it, but it isn't hard...It's formulating a plan that's hard for me. I like to think I'm the "artistic" type, in that when something comes to me, it comes. I can't force it out with a plan, or a strategy or an idea. It either comes out through inspiration or plain ole fear of failure...So most of the things we're doing or have done are almost alien to me. 90% of all the papers I've done in college have been almost final minute, figure it out as you go type of deals. This is a different beast for me, but I think I've finally tamed it.

Revised Research Plan

Title
Peak Oil and the Consequences

Topic Focus
Oil is almost the currency of the world. As countries develop they use oil to fuel projects and development. My topic centers around the theory of peak oil, and if it is true, and the world supply of Oil will be unable, or not cost-productive enough to support the global economy. What could happen then?

Scope
I’ve both expanded, and contracted my topic. On one hand, I still want some basic idea of what defines Oil, but nothing like I had once thought I’d need…The scope of the project, is to explore what the possible ramifications *could be* on the world economy if an Oil crisis results. This is a refined, more direct approach to what my topic once was.

Outline:
1. Oil
- How it’s extracted
- Uses of Oil
2. World Use of Oil
- Oil production and consumption statistics
- Developing Countries growth
3. Crisis
- Ramifications of a possible supply shortfall
- Solutions, fixes, or outcomes of the fallout

Academic Disciplines
I’ve expanded the disciplines that I’d look at…The first is geology, if only for the basic understanding of Oil I need for this work. I originally thought I’d need to look at sociology…but I no longer think so. I think I need to explore some basic concepts of economics at possibly a macro and micro level. The things that directly affect Oil are rooted in economics the world over. Individual people really do not factor in.

Key Terms
Petroleum
Crude Oil
Oil Supplies
Oil crisis of the 1970’s
Oil Consumption Statistics
Oil Production Statistics
Inflation
Deflation
Stagflation
Economic Principles

Nature of Topic

It has become less necessary for me to get information on “what” oil is. A basic understanding is enough. It has become a priority to get information based upon the consumption, production, and uses of oil in the world, and explore both the possibilities and realities of the oil situation. All information found must be peer reviewed to be of any use. All information will have to be recent, IE, within the last few years. The technology and tactics of the world changes at such a quick pace that anything before at the very least 2004 would be completely outdated.

Library of Congress Classification (LC) Areas
QE420-499 – Petrology (...Still unsure of what classification this is...)
HD9502-9502.5 - Energy Industries
HB801-842 - Consumption. Demand
HB1-3840 - Economic Theory

Change List:

Pretty much everything...Lets see...new title, New topic focus, Revised scope, Different outline, New Academic Disciplines, New Key terms, new Nature of topic, and new Library of Congress classifications...for the most part.

Everything pretty much got swapped around.

Week 5 Blog Entry

I think this is the first week thus far that I think I can say came off with some reasonable degree of success. That's not a good thing.

The only two assignments I had difficulty with was the citation assignment, because Proquest was down for maintenance. I could have done that section later if Proquest was back up...but...I'm lazy, and forgot about it. It's now 11 PM on Wed, and it's too late to do it.

The second was our last assignment. I had no idea that the books we found from the library visit would be involved. I didn't state in my report that I had ordered them from another Timberland because...I didn't think it'd be a big deal. Little did I know. However, I think the substitution I came up with is if equal value. Hopefully you will see it the same way.

Beyond those two issues, this week went fine. Here's to next week going as well...or preferably, better.

Week 4 Blog Entry

Week 4 is now in the books, as far as I can tell assignment wise. I even was able to do the library assignment from last week.

Nothing this week gave me any problems...I don't know if I did them very well, but I was able to do all the assignments.

I found the How I Know assignments to be the most interesting ones we did. The Canuck question produced different results, while all of us had a different theory on what we knew ourselves.

I'm planning on doing last week's Library Catalog assignment soon, even if I get no credit for it, but I couldn't fit it in this week. Too much going on.

On to week 5!